The precision of race/ethnicity weights was enhanced in April 2013. As a result, in July 2015 we adopted an overlapping dual frame sample design, in which cell phone respondents are interviewed regardless of whether or not they also have a landline. For the cell phone sample, SSI begins with a monthly listing of every existing telephone area code and exchange. SSI starts with a database of all listed landline telephone numbers, updated on a four- to six-week rolling basis, 25 percent of listings at a time. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Monday morning reports that more than half of registered voters, ... “A lot of the methodology used today is the same methodology … <>/ExtGState<>/XObject<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI] >>/MediaBox[ 0 0 612 792] /Contents 4 0 R/Group<>/Tabs/S/StructParents 0>> Trump has not moved up 13 points in the last 8 days.he was NEVER 12 points behind. It’s worth noting that the ABC News/Washington Post survey comes as a series of other key polls were released on Sunday, indicating Biden’s narrow lead over Trump nationally and in battleground states, even though some state races remain very close.. He also does not point out that most of the other major polls show that the vast majority of the American people HATE Obamacare. 4 stabbed at DC protests, while 1 person shot at clashes in Washington state, The electric vehicles no one is talking about. As of April 2013, Spanish-language interviewing was added to full-length ABC/Post polls for respondents who indicate a preference to be interviewed in Spanish. In the first stage of selection, the database is sorted by state and county, and the number of telephone numbers to be sampled within each county is determined using systematic sampling procedures from a random start, such that each county is assigned a sample size proportional to its share of possible numbers. ... ABC News, and The Washington Post. ABC News and The Washington Post initiated their polling partnership on February 19, 1981, announcing an 18—month agreement to jointly produce news surveys on current issues and trends. Methodology This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone interviews Sept. 8-13, 2020, among random samples of 705 Minnesota registered voters, including 615 likely voters; and 702 Wisconsin registered voters, including 605 likely voters. On the other hand, surveys that, for instance, do no within-household selection, or use listed-only samples, will increase their cooperation or contact rates (and therefore response rates), but at the expense of random selection or population coverage. stream Occasional shorter-length ABC/Post polls are conducted via an omnibus survey produced by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA; see methodological details here. Allowing for some overlap of these groups, the frame covers approximately 95 percent of the target population, U.S. adults age 18+. Within households, the respondent selected was the adult living in the household who last had a birthday and who was home at the time of the interview. ABC News has studied the effect of such weighting (Merkle & Langer, Public Opinion Quarterly, Spring 2008) concluding that it carries the risk of distortion, and, when done properly, has no meaningful impact on the data. We do accept some probability-based surveys that do not meet our own methodological standards – in terms of within-household respondent selection, for example – but may recommend cautious use of such data, with qualifying language. The ABC News/Washington Post poll was far more accurate than Trump claims. ABC and The Washington Post direct the methodological approach to full-length ABC/Post polls in consultation with our field work provider for these surveys, Abt Associates of Rockville, MD. METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 6-9, 2020, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 879 registered voters, including 725 likely voters. ... ABC News, and The Washington Post. The Electoral College meets on Monday. Methodology This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone May 25-28, 2020, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of … We evaluate the level of voter turnout produced by these models and diagnose differences across models when they occur. Households were selected by random-digit dialing. Within households, the respondent selected was the adult living in the household who last had a birthday and who was at home at the time of the interview. The data then are weighted using demographic information from the U.S. Census and NHIS to adjust for variance from population values. Our sample excludes adults who don’t have a cell or landline phone (3.2 percent, per the NHIS); who don’t speak English or Spanish (1.5 percent, per the American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau); and who live in institutional group facilities where individual telephone access is disallowed (chiefly, adult correctional facilities), about 0.9 percent. Ignore polls — Newt Gingrich (@newtgingrich) November 1, 2016 Our design effects as of March 2020 were 1.21. Junk in, Junk out! ABC News/Washington Post 2020 battleground state surveys are based on 775 to 1,100 random-sample telephone interviews with adults in selected states. Weights are trimmed to a range of 0.2 to 6.0, again as with ABC/Post national polls. Langer Research Associates has published briefing papers summarizing recent research on non-probability sampling, including opt-in online surveys, the use of social media (and related approaches) to estimate public opinion and challenges in the use of “big data.” We’ve also commented on non-probability sampling in the Fall 2013 issue of the Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology and in a 2012 presentation at the annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. Cell/landline proportions are per the most recent estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Health Interview Survey. Sampling error can be calculated when probability sampling methods, such as those described here, are employed, using the standard formula (at the 95 percent confidence level) of (SQRT(.25/sample size))*1.96, plus adjustment for design effects. Washington Post-ABC poll is an absurdity. 3 0 obj There can be other sources of differences in polls, such as question wording and order and systematic noncoverage or selection bias. Trump is the only one in the group to be seen unfavorably by most Americans, 56% in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates.He's seen strongly unfavorably rather than strongly favorably by a 17-point margin, 46-29% -- about double the strongly negative margin for Biden, 8 points, 34-26%. For numbers that are not 1,000-block pooled, cell phone service information is available at the exchange level only; therefore all numbers in those exchanges also are included. Weights may include average partisan self-identification in current and recent ABC/Post data, based on a standardized rule. From a random start within the first sampling interval, a systematic nth selection of 100-blocks is performed and a 2-digit random number between 00 and 99 is appended to each selected 100-block stem. ABC and The Washington Post direct the methodological approach to full-length ABC/Post polls in consultation with our field work provider for these surveys, Abt Associates of Rockville, MD. For missing data, a weighting cell is set to 1% for respondents who did not answer a given question used in weighting, and the substantive categories are adjusted by multiplying the ACS benchmarks by 0.99. %���� Methodology Sample View help for Sample. endobj This evidence challenges the assumptions that response rates are a key indicator of survey quality.”. Landline numbers are drawn proportionate to their estimated distribution in the country’s nine Census divisions. In terms of survey content, we examine methodological statements for misleading or false claims, questionnaires for leading or biasing wording or ordering, and analyses and news releases for inaccurate or selective conclusions. %PDF-1.7 The proportion of cell phone interviews again is driven by the NHIS estimate of cell phone-only respondents; to achieve our target, from July 2015 through February 2020 65 percent of all interviews were conducted by cell phone, with the remaining 35 percent interviewed via landline. SEE: Cartoons on the 2020 Presidential Election ] All possible numbers in active blocks are added to the random digit database. What the writer does not disclose is that the Washington Post / ABC poll is highly skewed to the left, so its conclusions are totally unreliable. 4 0 obj There were no live operators and no cellphones. Our practice for ABC News is to develop a range of “likely voter” models, employing elements such as self-reported voter registration, intention to vote, attention to the race, past voting, age, respondents’ knowledge of their polling places and political party identification. 2 0 obj Data are adjusted to account for the greater probability of respondents who have both a cell and landline phone, compared with those who are cell-only or landline-only. That is not a good method of polling. A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Wednesday found that the former vice president is leading Trump 57% to 40% among voters in Wisconsin. In addition to recommending against reporting surveys that do not meet appropriate standards for validity and reliability, we promote and strongly encourage the reporting of good-quality polls that break new ground in opinion research. It cannot be assumed that a higher response rate in and of itself ensures greater data integrity. Cell sample respondents’ place of residence is checked and their Census region adjusted accordingly if necessary. Response rates are calculated using sample dispositions. Methodologically, in all or nearly all cases we require a probability-based sample, with high levels of coverage of a credible sampling frame. However, an ABC-led study (Merkle, Langer, Cohen, Piekarski, Benford & Lambert, 2009, Public Opinion Quarterly) found that this “cleaning” process excludes respondents who have home-based business-listed phones and no other lines at home on which they take calls, creating 3 percent noncoverage of eligible households with no offsetting gains in productivity. Langer Research Associates, primary polling provider to ABC News, advises the news division on standards for disclosure, validity, reliability and unbiased content in survey research and evaluates data when requested to establish whether it meets these standards. �T��"f�����Ӳ"���B�H1P�DI��K(#�(0�*6� ��V��q�(��˖�b���E��'� �9���@JM������=�iɪ�W�5o�4��6%�"?�=����W'�]у���+X�$NDŨ��B;&�KΜ8��. As Election Day approaches these polls are most relevant and accurate if conducted among voters. Jury: Black bikers' race was a factor, but city won't pay, Permanent resident facing deportation hoping for Biden's help: 'Need a miracle', Fall 2013 issue of the Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology, Merkle, Langer, Cohen, Piekarski, Benford & Lambert, 2009, Public Opinion Quarterly, Merkle & Langer, Public Opinion Quarterly, Spring 2008, Consequences of Reducing Nonresponse in a National Telephone Survey, Gauging the Impact of Growing Nonresponse on Estimates from a National RDD Telephone Survey, The Causes and Consequences of Response Rates in Surveys by the News Media and Government Contractor Survey Research Firms, Public Opinion Polling in a Globalized World. Here's what to expect. 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